Five stages. Clear owners. The monthly pack is the only data requirement.
KEEL is decision provenance for the hold period: the IC thesis captured at approval, reversal triggers wired to sources you already report, every reversal attempt classified — fear, analysis, or new information — before the decision, and an append-only ledger that survives audit.
STAGE 01 · DAY 0
Capture
CEO + OPERATING PARTNER · ~20 MIN, ONCE · THESIS, CONVICTION, TRIGGERS
STAGE 02 · WEEK 1
Wire
PORTCO CFO · MAP EACH TRIGGER TO SOURCE, OWNER, CADENCE
STAGE 03 · MONTHLY
Monitor
DAY +10 CLOSE · ACTUALS VS TRIGGERS · PRESSURE LOGGED SEPARATELY
STAGE 04 · EVENT
Intercept
REVERSAL DRAFTED → CLASSIFIED IN SECONDS · DECISION RIGHTS UNCHANGED
STAGE 05 · REVIEW DATE
Review
OPERATING PARTNER · OUTCOME LABELS THE ROW · THE LOOP CLOSES
THE GOVERNANCE CONDITION — WHY REVERSALS ACTUALLY ROUTE THROUGH KEEL
KEEL doesn't catch reversals telepathically. The fund makes it a condition: no capital release without a captured commitment; no reversal resolution reaches the board without a provenance row. The leverage is yours — KEEL is just where the record lives.
OPERATING PARTNER
Your console. You see trigger headroom across the portfolio, get intercept alerts, and run outcome reviews. Stages 01, 04, 05.
PORTCO CFO
Zero incremental reporting. Triggers are wired to the monthly pack you already produce — email or upload on close. Stage 02–03.
FUND CFO / GC
Single-tenant, append-only, hash-chained, exportable in full. Every strategic reversal in the hold period, data-room ready.
FIRST SESSION — TWO WAYS TO START
Load the demo portfolio (Meridian Logistics, four decisions, one reversal attempt mid-flight) and take the guided tour — or start clean and capture your first real commitment. Demo data is clearly marked and can be cleared at any time.
STAGE 01 · CAPTURE · CEO + OPERATING PARTNER · ~20 MIN, ONCE
Put the thesis on the record before the pressure exists.
HOW TO DO THIS WELL
Capture at IC approval or board resolution — reuse the IC memo language, don't rewrite it. Thesis in the CEO's own words (they will face these words later). Triggers come from the underwriting case: the guardrails you'd genuinely reverse on. Three is the norm. Once locked, the record is immutable — that's the point.
NEW COMMITMENT
80
CAPTURED COMMITMENTS
NO COMMITMENTS YET · CAPTURE YOUR FIRST ABOVE, OR LOAD THE DEMO PORTFOLIO FROM THE GUIDE
Actuals against triggers. Pressure logged separately.
THE SEPARATION PRINCIPLE
Operational actuals (left) and pressure signals (right) are stored and scored apart. That separation is what makes a later classification defensible. On each monthly close (day +10), enter actuals per trigger. Log pressure signals as they happen — board sentiment, market noise, press. Pressure is data too; it just isn't operational data.
TRIGGER STATUS · ENTER ACTUALS ON EACH CLOSE
PRESSURE LOG · KEPT SEPARATE FROM OPERATIONAL DATA
DATE
SOURCE
SIGNAL
STAGE 04 · INTERCEPT · EVENT-DRIVEN · DECISION RIGHTS UNCHANGED
A reversal is drafted. Watch the engine show its work.
HOW TO USE THE INTERCEPT
Paste the draft reversal memo (or board resolution language) below. The engine runs four weighted checks — triggers, pressure timing, language vs. thesis, pattern vs. your own ledger — and classifies: FEAR, ANALYSIS, or NEW INFORMATION. If the memo cites material information your triggers never covered, tick that box: a thesis can be rationally wrong for reasons three KPIs can't enumerate. KEEL classifies. You decide. Either way, the ledger remembers.
REASONING TRACE · EVIDENCE · WEIGHT · CONCLUSION
THIS CHOICE IS YOURS ALONE · THE DECISION AND ITS LABEL ARE LOGGED PERMANENTLY
STAGE 05 · REVIEW · OPERATING PARTNER · AT REVIEW DATE OR EXIT EVENT
Close the loop. The label becomes learning.
HOW TO RUN AN OUTCOME REVIEW
At the review date (or a realization event), answer one question per decided row: was the thesis right? The outcome attaches to the classification permanently — that pairing (what we decided under pressure, and what happened) is the dataset that compounds. Reviews take minutes; skip them and the moat stops growing.
DECISIONS AWAITING OUTCOME
NOTHING TO REVIEW YET · DECISIONS APPEAR HERE AFTER AN INTERCEPT
THE CONVICTION LEDGER · APPEND-ONLY · HASH-CHAINED · EXPORTABLE
Logged. Labeled. Permanent.
Every row is exportable — board pack annex, data room, IC follow-up, LP letter. In aggregate this is the moat: a labeled record of how this portfolio decides under pressure, compounding inside your tenant. It trains nothing outside your fund.
ALL ENTRIES
ENTRY
PORTCO · INITIATIVE
CAPITAL
CLASSIFICATION
CONF
TRIGGERS
DECISION
OUTCOME
THE LEDGER IS EMPTY · IT FILLS AS DECISIONS ARE MADE
KEEL CONSOLE · FIRST RUN
Decision provenance for the hold period.
Capture the thesis at approval. Wire reversal triggers to the monthly pack. Intercept reversals and classify them — fear, analysis, or new information — before the decision. Build the ledger no competitor can buy.
Fastest way to understand it: load the demo portfolio and take the 2-minute guided tour.